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The population at the end of 2016 was 104,200 - a rise of 1,500 on the previous year. Net inward migration accounted for 1,300 of this rise and natural growth just 200:

This confirms that the island's population is still on target to reach 166,000 by 2065, which would mean that the population would have more or less doubled between the census of 1991 and 2065.

However, of far greater interest to me is the level of the rise in population in the last decade between 2006 and 2016, which the Jersey Statistics Unit declares to be 11,900 people. That is based on the estimated population at the end of 2006, which was declared as 92,300. There has to be some caution as these are just estimates and I seem to recall that the population estimates that were being quoted a decade ago turned out to be too low compared to the 2011 census figure. However, the latest estimates are likely to be more accurate. This distortion in the accuracy between the 2016 and the 2006 estimates might possibly overstate the level of population rise during the last decade.

The Statistics Unit has (rather wisely from a political standpoint) not quoted the rise between 2006-2016 as a percentage. However, my own calculation suggests the population rise was about 12.9% during that decade.

To put this into historical context, the highest rises in Jersey's population during the past century occurred during the post-war boom period of 1951 to 1971. These rises in the resident population can be broken down as follows:

1951 to 1961 = 12.6% increase
1961 to 1971 = 16.5% increase.

These percentage figures are the "corrected" ones (rather than the official ones) quoted from Table A.1 of Mark Boleat's 2010 report 'Jersey's Population - A history' (link below):

So we can see that the percentage rise in Jersey's population during 2006 to 2016 (12.9%) has exceeded the equivalent rise experienced during 1951-61 (12.6%) and is not that far off the record rise of 16.5% experienced during 1961-71. It is worth recalling that the growth in population during the 1960's resulted in radical political action to deal with the shortage of homes for locals, e.g. the mass rezoning of agricultural land to build new housing estates such as Le Squez and the introduction of tough new Housing residency requirements in 1970. It also led to the building of multi-storey tower blocks during the 1970's, such as De Quetteville (1970), Caesarea Court (1972), Le Marais (1972), The Cedars (1975), Convent Court (1976) and Hue Court (1978).

By 1976, the island only avoided running out of water altogether thanks to the desalination plant and despite angry political opposition from environmentalists, Queen's Valley was flooded and came onto line as a reservoir in 1992. I would say that it is inevitable that another valley will have to be flooded within the next 2 decades unless the population can somehow manage to radically reduce its water consumption. I can't see how that can happen without drastic increases in water rates and usage charges, which I am totally against as it will disproportionately affect large families and those on the lowest incomes. It would also result in many households no longer watering their gardens as regularly as they used to - a process that seems to be happening already as a result of the forced introduction of water meters for new properties. This lack of maintenance of domestic gardens will obviously have an impact on the number of birds and bees and make the island less attractive as a tourist destination.

So it is now almost inevitable that the current increases in population will have negative lifestyle consequences for all of us during the coming two decades and although all politicians claim to be against these high levels of immigration, none of them are capable of actually doing anything about it because taking the necessary action would have a negative impact on the economy and result in yet more tax rises and spending cuts.

The future is grim.
General Discussion / Re: Chief Minister
« Last post by shortport on Yesterday at 02:44:27 AM »
It says a lot for the rest of our government if over 30 of them supported him.I would say 70% of our politicians are out of their depth and very few of them do anything to improve our quality of life.The next elections won't make any difference either unless there are some credible candidates,unfortunetly you can't vote someone out,unless there are some impressive candidates the same bunch of muppets will get back in again.
General Discussion / Re: Chief Minister
« Last post by Chevalier Blanc on June 22, 2017, 04:04:31 PM »
To the outside world the States of Jersey government must look like a load of idiots!
There will be no change in the way gorst operators. he is way out of his depth. He should go back to his job of being an accountant.
He only looks at figures and not the people.
The members through away the chance to have a better government by saving him. 
He still wants to bring ozouf back in!  That tells you everything you need to know. He had to sack ozouf to keep his job knowing that the members do not want ozouf, so once he was saved he then goes and tells us he will bring ozouf back in the future.
So that is what he thinks of us and the states members!
I do not wish to forward my life but May 2018 just cannot come fast enough!   
General Discussion / Chief Minister
« Last post by Chevalier Blanc on June 21, 2017, 05:41:23 AM »
It was said in the chamber today that when gorst came to Jersey as an adult he was in some kind of society that was royal.
His one aim is to turn Jersey in to a council like in England.
Take want he wants to do. Get rid of the bailiff has speaker and have 6 districts for voting which would do away with the parish system.
Leaving just a council of ministers running the island because the Constables would go as well in the end.
So much holding on to power that he sacked ozouf to get the CoM's vote for him and other members who want ozouf out, that is the deal he made.
The next CM i think should be Le Fondre.
General Discussion / Re: illegal immigrates
« Last post by cpcarrot on June 20, 2017, 01:10:56 PM »
What's your source? This rumour was doing the rounds a while back, but ultimately led to nothing.
General Discussion / illegal immigrates
« Last post by Chevalier Blanc on June 19, 2017, 09:55:45 PM »
So this is being kept very quiet, North Coast police pick up illegal immigrates that tried to come here by boat. Black bags have been found with false passports and lifejackets, children's cloths. All this be denied but people know the truth.
General Discussion / Re: ozouf travel expenses
« Last post by shortport on June 19, 2017, 12:02:51 AM »
Wheres this story from?
General Discussion / ozouf travel expenses
« Last post by Chevalier Blanc on June 18, 2017, 03:52:09 PM »
Well now ozouf to explain his spending on his travel expenses. He is going to repay it back from his own money in time.
Why was his partner going with him on the trips he took?   ozouf was going on States business, so why his partner went with him is not right, seems that he  ( ozouf ) did not have his mind on the business but more on his having a jolly goog time with his partner.
The one good thing ozouf will have done if it goes through, is that he brought down the government i.e. CoM'S.
In which case well done ozouf!
Come on May 2018!!!!
 Le Fondre would make a very good CM. Ferguson no. Valliois single mother does not have the time it takes for being CM. Constable Taylor speaks well but will not take the job.
Just hope that gorst and the rest of the CoM's go.  Let us get a new government that will look after the island and more important the people.
Tracy Vallois-St Saviour No 2 / Re: Tracy Vallois to stand for who exactly
« Last post by boatyboy on June 11, 2017, 09:42:58 PM »
I think re giging your post to say almost the same thing, that Deputy Vallois really wants to be Chief Minister does not take in to account her history.

Remember she is not afraid to speak out, she also appears to be very numeric, handling the maths competently.

Does she want the stress of the top jo ? I would say no based on a quiet non egotistical character. Now Philip Ozouf would probably jump at the chance.

She gained a lot of respect when she took this action:


Until this week, that is, when she handed in her resignation as Assistant Treasury Minister. She had had enough of, she says, being excluded, ignored and taken for granted, and she wanted Islanders to know it. The Deputy also thought that the public deserved to know just how disorganised she thinks the upper levels of government are.

I think John Le Fondre or Chris Taylor would make better Chief Ministers than Gorst. So of course would Furgeson, Higgins and even Tadier who has matured a lot and all mentioned  " people " have backbone.

Go on Jerry, I know you don't like answering questions, but be positive tell us your top three choices to replace Mr Wooden Top ?

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