Author Topic: The coming election  (Read 1849 times)

Offline Jerry Gosselin

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #30 on: December 18, 2017, 07:45:26 AM »
I just found this article dated last Tuesday with some interesting election gossip. Dear old Tony is so very close to Jersey's political establishment that one has to presume some of this might have substance. Here's an extract:

Quote
In a shock public announcement at the Constable’s Soiree at St Brelade, Constable Steve Pallett said that he would not be standing for re-election as Constable but would still seek to be engaged in local politics. The likelihood is that he would try for Senator. Who will stand for Constable? At least one candidate is almost certain but I won’t mention them by name until they declare themselves. It may be that the early announcement is to give time for other candidates to come forward.

http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2017/12/election-line-up.html


A Constable trying for Senator? I can't recall that ever happening in modern times. Why give up a cushy, uncontested position for life for the risk (and expense) of an islandwide election where you get very little hustings time to say anything of substance and you have to face another contested election 4 years later?

Unless Pallett has been effectively forced from office by others in the parish and therefore has nothing to lose by standing for Senator - now that sounds a lot more realistic!  ;)

I am a little bit worried as to who might want to take Pallett's seat for life. Could it be Murray Norton or Sean Dooley-Power? We know that Power has been running a continuous election campaign since he lost his St Brelade seat in 2014. The only question is whether he'll try to regain his old Deputy's seat or stand for some other position. I can't see him trying the Senators again after his humiliation last time out. Surely once bitten, twice shy? Is he targetting the St Brelade's Constable's job? It is not out of the question and it would definitely explain Pallett's kamikaze decision to suddenly step down.

Tony also speculates that Ozouf could take over Terry MacDonald's rotten borough seat in St Saviour, with MacDonald retiring. Obviously there has been much idol speculation over the past few years about Ozouf possibly requisitioning one of the St Saviour seats in order to remain in the States, with Constable Rennard's future being the subject of much of it. I am not totally convinced that Ozouf will do a deal with MacDonald. That said, MacDonald's uncontested election in 2014 only came about after an apparent secret deal with Peter McLinton, which angered a lot of people. If he was prepared to do a secret deal with another government candidate 3 years ago then it is possible he could do a deal with Ozouf this time....
 
« Last Edit: December 18, 2017, 07:47:53 AM by Jerry Gosselin »

Offline Chevalier Blanc

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #31 on: December 20, 2017, 02:55:55 PM »
I heard a woman was thinking of going for the Constable position.
I hope Norton does not get in.

Offline Jerry Gosselin

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #32 on: December 20, 2017, 08:19:27 PM »
Last time out in St Brelade No. 1, Norton polled 545 votes to Michael Jackson's 452, with Angela Jeune getting 173 votes. If Angela Jeune had not stood as a candidate then Jackson could theoretically have beaten Norton - but only if at least 80% of Jeune's votes had gone to Jackson.

I am sure Norton has high ambitions to be a Minister in Gorst's next administration. There is a theory that he might therefore decide to run for Senator to give himself a better chance but I doubt it because there are several current Ministers who were either elected unopposed or have tiny majorities. For example, Prykey only polled 16 more votes in Trinity than her opponent in an election where less than 1,300 voters turned out. Luce was elected unopposed and no doubt will be again next May (unless Gulliver the seagull stands against him!)

If Jackson doesn't stand against Norton in 2018 then Norton is virtually guaranteed to be re-elected.

Voters all across the island should be discussing things like this and collaborating with others in their district to work out how best to knock out incumbent government candidates. Unfortunately, in practice this does not happen - at least not in the urban districts. St Helier No.1 is the most obvious example. Deputy Scott Wickenden was a weak candidate in 2014 and polled barely half the number of votes that the other two higher-placed Deputies achieved. He only got 476 votes but Reform Jersey parachuted in their own very weak candidate (who has not been heard of in local politics since then) and she picked up 355 votes, beating Nick Le Cornu, who was the official Reform candidate until a couple of months before the election (311 votes).

Therefore it doesn't take a genius to work out that Wickenden would have lost by a couple of hundred votes had Reform not parachuted in that last-minute candidate. Wicko is still there for the taking - a very uninspiring States Member indeed. Yet there is no indication that the same thing won't happen all over again, with Reform possibly standing another candidate against Le Cornu. It makes me totally despair at how petty, selfish and divided the political opposition is in Jersey, which is why Appleby so strongly recommended us as a safe tax haven to Apple. How can we possibly expect voter turnout to improve when the voters can clearly see how weak and divided the alternative candidates are?
 

Offline Jerry Gosselin

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #33 on: December 21, 2017, 05:00:50 PM »
Pallett confirms he's standing for Senator because "he wants to be able to focus on sporting issues"  ::) -

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2017/12/21/st-brelade-constable-to-stand-for-senator/

That's got to be one of the least credible excuses from a politician that I have ever heard. It is just a half-baked call for the sports lobby to vote for him to save his career. He's in the last chance saloon for States Members and it's getting close to chucking out time....

Offline shortport

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #34 on: December 22, 2017, 12:26:25 AM »
The trouble is unless we get some new credible candidates standing next year we will end up with pretty much what we have now.With any luck after Christmas Gorst might announce he is not standing again,and if he doesn't who will be our next chief minister,i doubt if it would be any newcomer so it will be one of the current establishment members.God help us.

Offline Jerry Gosselin

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #35 on: December 22, 2017, 12:54:22 AM »
According to reports, Establishment kingpin Julian Rogers turned up as - wait for it, wait for it - a Reform Jersey candidate at local elections for Crowcroft minions at the Town Hall last night!  :o

https://twitter.com/ReformJersey/status/943601413313179648


He was elected onto the Crowcroft-controlled Roads Committee last night, with another Reform candidate called Amanda Brown finishing in a tie for fifth place. The frankly astonishing news that Mezec has palled up with a former high-ranking Commissioner of the Jersey Appointments Commission and long-time best friend of States Members (when he was head of the politician-controlled States Members Remuneration Review Body) confirms just how far Reform has moved towards the Establishment and away from its original goals in just 3 years. It is also quite baffling because Reform have never once criticised Crowcroft's anti-car policies so why they would feel the need to go as far as placing their own candidates on a Committee which he already dominates is not clear. It is hard to see how having a Reform Jersey member (or two) on the Committee could possibly stop the glut of road calming measures going through the system even if it wanted to. My best guess is that with the parish soon to be flush with States rates cash, Mezec and Southern have decided to make sure that their own political district (St Helier No. 2) gets more than its fair share of the anti-car schemes cash so that his party can claim the credit for (as they would see it in their deluded way) 'making the town safer' for its residents (although it clearly did not make the town any safer for one poor Scottish child last year).

Obviously this is based on a total misconception that there are somehow more town votes to be won than lost by backing the types of traffic-calming schemes that are causing mass confusion and disruption for anyone travelling through St Helier by vehicle. That is far from proven but deluded States Members clearly think they will win votes by siding with Crowcroft and his mad schemes, hence the sudden urge to get their hands on their share of this huge pot of gold.

As for Rogers, this raises the obvious question as to whether Reform have invited him to be their candidate for Senator.  :-\ After all, the more Establishment you are, the more chance you have in the Senators' race and you can't get much more of a gilt-edged States insider than Rogers. I can't help but wonder what your average union member is going to think when they realise their hard-earned cash is going to a grade A political brown-noser like Rogers with no previous known sympathies for those struggling to heat and feed themselves and pay the rent...
« Last Edit: December 22, 2017, 12:57:20 AM by Jerry Gosselin »

Offline Jerry Gosselin

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2018, 10:46:46 PM »
The Christmas holidays are finally over this week for States Members and panic is now setting in as they realise they only have a handful of sessions left to get themselves on telly with new populist ideas that they've suddenly dreamt up before the Beeb and ITV pretend to become 'independent and impartial' for a month when the nominations of candidates take place.

Reform Jersey are, naturally, milking the system for what it's worth. They have lodged a breathtaking 16 questions for Tuesday's session, comprising 10 as written questions and a further 6 as oral questions. Furthermore, they are allowed to ask supplementaries to their own oral questions, which means the other 2 who didn't ask the question will quickly get up to ask more planned questions after the first question has been answered.

http://www.statesassembly.gov.je/AssemblyOrderPapers/2018/2018.01.16%20Order%20Paper.pdf


In effect, a minority political party is exploiting the fact that the questions system was designed with individual members in mind - not political parties. This would never be allowed at Westminster- you could not have a situation where a relatively small party such as the Liberal Democrats was able to get more questions asked every week than Labour, for example. Reform Jersey represents only 3 members out of 49 (less than 10%) but by pooling similar questions together and using their maximum allocation of questions every week, this small huddle of St Helier Deputies that you could fit into a public phone box is able to completely dominate question time. Anyone care to guess what proportion of the total question time is taken up by Reform questions this Tuesday? It has got to be at least 70% of the speaking time when you take into account the supplementaries, possibly a lot more. Such a bent system is clearly overdue for reform, but are Reform in favour of reforming it? I think we all know what the answer to that one is, don't we?  ;)

An awful lot is going on at the moment in political circles, so much, in fact, that I don't have time to mention a lot of it. However, this tweet by Reform Jersey caught my attention:

https://twitter.com/ReformJersey/status/951089225906126848

Yes, folks - the same 3 members who were urging us all to get rid of the Constables in the great 26% sham referendum are now advertising for their own Constables!  ;D It is almost beyond parody so it is hard for me to find suitable words to respond.

However, it is worth just analysing in a bit more detail why they might be doing this and what it tells us. First of all, Reform hijacked the St Helier Roads Committee elections last month. Without any prior public notice to let the parishioners of St Helier know what they were planning, they put forward several individuals as candidates for the Roads Committee. That led to the extraordinary situation which I reported previously on 22nd December (I'll leave you to read that post yourself). Clearly they had been having secret talks with Rogers and had reached agreement with him that he would stand under their banner.

However, they are now having to advertise, for heaven's sake, for members of the public who might be interested in standing for Constable under the Reform banner. So that tells us that they haven't been able to recruit anybody suitable through the private backroom hokey pokey that they used to secure Rogers. It obviously means that they can't find anyone suitable from amongst their own paying membership or they don't think that their own paying members have enough Establishment credentials to match the esteemed Rogers. An interesting query is whether they actually bothered to formally contact their own paying members and invite them to consider standing as a candidate for Constable before they placed this open advert aimed at anyone. I would very much like to know the answer to that but I have been unable to find anyone who will actually admit to being a member of the party. We should also take into consideration all those union members whose contributions are being creamed off by Reform. Were they contacted and asked if they wanted to stand for Constable?

Nothing good can possibly come of this for Reform. They are likely to further alienate whatever remaining long-time members they still have. Presuming they find another high-ranking Quango fatcat who is up to their high standards to run for Constable, everyone is going to know that this person presumably had no interest in Reform Jersey policies before replying to this advertisement. We are now beginning to see Reform for what it really is - a totally disingenuous organisation that stands for very little other than power at all costs.

Offline Jerry Gosselin

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #37 on: January 16, 2018, 11:00:59 PM »
Pallett confirms he's standing for Senator because "he wants to be able to focus on sporting issues"  ::) -

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2017/12/21/st-brelade-constable-to-stand-for-senator/

That's got to be one of the least credible excuses from a politician that I have ever heard. It is just a half-baked call for the sports lobby to vote for him to save his career. He's in the last chance saloon for States Members and it's getting close to chucking out time....

A month later and here's the real reason Pallett had to step down as Constable:

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2018/01/16/former-constable-aiming-to-return/


Hopefully there's a Mike Jackson-like figure waiting to challenge Mez in St Lawrence as it looks like she's teetering on the edge of political oblivion too...

Offline Jerry Gosselin

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #38 on: January 17, 2018, 11:39:28 PM »
The States surprisingly voted by 24 to 21 this afternoon to reinstate the single parent component of Income Support, which is welcome, but I don't think those claimants with children who have had to suffer harsh drops in their benefits over the past 2 years will get any comfort to know that many States Members who were happy to support Minister Pinel's cuts 2 years ago suddenly switched their votes today to support its reinstatement again in a classic case of flip-flopping.

Amongst those who voted to remove the component in 2015 but today voted to reinstate it again were:

Deputies Jeremy Macon, Kevin Lewis, Peter Mac and Terry MacDonald - all representing districts in St Saviour; plus Deputies Murray Norton, Tracy Vallois, Andrew Lewis and Carolyn Labey and Constable Len Norman (St Clement). This is not a comprehensive list though as I haven't had time.

Three Constables who failed to show for the original vote back in 2015 all voted to reinstate the component today (Crowcroft, Le Sueur-Rennard and Mezbourian).

It is this sort of inconsistency in policy which infuriates voters and has cost some of the neediest people in Jersey two years of extra financial pain and presumably they will not get that lost benefit backdated.  >:(

Get these hypocrites out!

Offline Chevalier Blanc

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #39 on: Yesterday at 03:59:47 PM »
When the new states members come in May, then they might just go back and take it away again. Anything to get votes.

Offline Fritz

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Re: The coming election
« Reply #40 on: Today at 02:14:36 AM »
I,m a single parent.(And have been for the past ten years).
No States department, Tax office or S.S, have ever informed me of any benefit I may be due.
Does this only apply to unemployed?