Crowcroft standing for Senator then Chief Minister is really interesting.
1) He is sure to get in on an islandwide mandate; for a start, he is very popular with St Helier ratepayers and all those St Helier votes will surely help him achieve a Senatorial position.
2) On the other hand, St Helier parishioners will have to be comfortable that a new constable would carry on his good work with parish finances.
3) Let's assume Crowcroft and Le Sueur are the two candidates in a final run off for Chief Minister. Let's assume Crowcroft wins. His very first job will be to nominate his ministerial team. His nominations are then approved (or not) by the whole house.
4) I can't see Crowcroft re-appointing Le Sueur as Treasury Minister. More likely, Philip Ozouf, or someone new.
5) I can't see Le Sueur taking defeat well, nor can I see him accepting a position working for Crowcroft, even if Crowcroft wanted him at Treasury. His likely reaction is to say "that's all folks, I'm off to tend my roses, let's have a by-election" sometime early in 2009.
So, Crowcroft standing for Senator and becoming Chief Minister is a sure fire way of not only avoiding Le Sueur as Chief Minister, but also getting rid of him full stop.
Is all of the above possible? Yes. Is it probable? It probably is. I'm off to stake a fiver with Honest Nev. I'll revisit this prediction after the new Council of Ministers is named!!!
