As someone who has a deep interest in the population and census issue Jerry, what would the Government have to gain ( or lose ) by presenting the figures on households differently compared to 2001?
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There is no simple answer to this. It also depends on whether or not one is referring to national governments or to our own administration in Jersey, which has its own unique political agenda.
With regard to
household definition, Jersey has simply copied changes that were implemented for the UK national census last year. In turn, the UK has to ensure that any changes it makes satisfies various international obligations to ensure the results can be compared with other countries. For example, there is the July 2008 EU Regulation on Population and Housing Censuses, as well as the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's 2006 Recommendations. Therefore I would suggest that there is no evidence of political motivation at island level connected with the most recent changes to household definition.
However, with regard to
dwelling definition, I am far less certain how to answer your question because my initial research suggests that by changing the definition of a dwelling for the 2011 Jersey census in order that the number of self-contained units of accommodation can no longer be established, the island authorities appear, on the face of it, to have completely disregarded the established best practice adopted for last year's UK mainland census (and for previous UK and Jersey censuses).
To back up my claim, I have pasted below two relevant extracts from the March 2010 proposals for the 2011 Census of Population in Northern Ireland, which helps explain what was going to be asked there with regard to the type of accommodation and why it was going to be asked (and I presume Northern Ireland's proposals would have been drawn up in order to follow those similarly recommended for England, Wales and Scotland):
3.32 The Census will provide information about the accommodation occupied by each
household. It will also provide a count of dwellings, including vacant dwellings, and
of dwellings shared by two or more households. This will show the way in which the
housing stock is being used and will provide a firm basis for assessing current and
future requirements as the number and type of households change. No other data
source gives such comprehensive information on housing stock at both national and
local level.
3.35 Questions on the type of accommodation occupied by the household and whether or
not that accommodation is self-contained will be used to identify separate dwellings
and the characteristics of the accommodation in dwellings shared by two or more
households. Households accommodated in caravans and other temporary structures
will be identified. Central government, local district councils and other users have
confirmed the ongoing importance of collecting this data to facilitate analysis of
changes in housing supply and demand, to understand variations in multi-occupancy
and to identify deprived areas.
http://www.nisranew.nisra.gov.uk/census/pdf/proposals.pdfNow here is a further explanation of the UK census definition of a dwelling (although it does not mention the 2011 definition) which I have copied from the Communities and Local Government website:
"... the 1991 Census defined a dwelling as structurally separate accommodation. This was determined primarily by considering the type of accommodation, as well as separate and shared access to multi-occupied properties. The 2001 Census defined dwellings as either containing a single household space or several household spaces sharing some facilities.
A 'household's accommodation' (a household space) is defined as being in a shared dwelling if it has accommodation type 'part of a converted or shared house', not all the rooms (including bathroom and toilet, if any) are behind a door that only that household can use and there is at least one other such household space at the same address with which it can be combined to form the shared dwelling. If any of these conditions are not met, the household space forms an unshared dwelling. Therefore a dwelling can consist of one household space (an unshared dwelling) or two or more household spaces (a shared dwelling)."
http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/definitiongeneral/So taken together, the above three quotes suggest to me that the UK has in past censuses as well as the most recent census, defined only self-contained units of accommodation as constituting separate dwellings. Furthermore, this was the definition used in Jersey prior to the 2011 census and is in line with the Jersey Planning & Environment Department's Island Plan definition that I highlighted in my previous post yesterday. However, this baffling change in definition locally means that all separate Jersey households, whether living in self-contained accommodation or not, were lumped together and classed as individual dwellings for last year's Jersey census. As the first of my three quotes above emphasises, the census data source is regarded as providing the most comprehensive information on housing stock at both national and local level. Yet in its current form, the dwellings information gathered from Jersey's 2011 census will be next to
useless in terms of future island housing and planning requirements unless the Statistics Unit can go back to the original data and re-extract the information to identify the number of self-contained units.
Who might gain political capital from this? Well at the most basic level, the Jersey lay person was told last month to accept that the number of
dwellings officially increased by an astonishing 11,992 over the last decade. In reality, I would estimate that the
actual rise in the number of dwellings (but in this case only counting self-contained units of accommodation) was probably no more than
half that figure- the majority of them grossly-undersized flats built by Dandara for the owner-occupier sector, particularly those islanders who have not yet had children, or whose children have grown up and left home. Given that the island's most obvious problem is a shortage of housing, any statistic which leaves the layman with the impression that the island's government over the last ten years has managed to oversee an unprecedented rise in the number of dwellings might well leave that layman with a more positive opinion of the level of competence in government than is actually deserved and justified.
Unlike the UK, which has seen a change in political administration between censuses, Jersey's administration does not change in terms of political complexion- only in terms of individual personalities who come and go from government. Therefore, unlike the UK, where the current administration would do anything to avoid showing the previous administration in a good light, Jersey's current administration continues to include those who were extremely influential in policy formation a decade ago, most obviously, Senator Philip Ozouf Junior. So you can see that on one level at least, the strange decision to change the way dwellings are counted can do the present executive no harm at all. If we were living in a proper democracy, the Scrutiny system would already be planning to investigate and question ministers and heads of department to discover the reasons why this crucial statistical change was implemented, apparently departing from best international practice in the process.
But we're not living in a proper democracy, so don't even expect a backbencher to be brave enough to stand up and ask questions about it on the floor of the house.
