GST could go above 3%, warns Chief Minister

[Voltaire]

Now, isn't that a surprise to everyone...

http://www.thisisjersey.com/2009/02/14/gst-could-go-above-3-warns-chief-minister/

The chief minister now says that GST may need to increase from 3%. No mention there at all of cutting the cost of the civil service bill so that we wouldn't need to? No mention of how it will effect the working population who pay higher and higher tax bills each year, or indeed how he has actually got to his decision?

If this is all from the "statisticians" then I have news for him, the rest of the Island knew how much things were costing years ago and knew it would create problems unless sorted. Whatever happened to all this making the civil service and states costs transparent? Making them Accountable, and being able to see accounts? Still hiding the cost behind states doors and asking for more.

Vive la Revolution...

[boatyboy]

Sam you said

or indeed how he has actually got to his decision?


thats easy to answer, it was not his decision he was told by high ranking civil servants, who also advised the States to bring in user pays. Their heavy wage packets must in no way be threatend, short fall in tax revenues, cut services ( but not jobs ) and tax the plebs more.

There is some good news, CM Le Suer has frozen States members pay, being the only income for some in the assembly. Showing that he is leading from the front with his next strong financial decision in these unchartered and unstable financial times would be to freeze all pay increases above £45,000 in the public sector. If the union's are unhappy offer pay rises and managerial jobs cuts. Let them choose. All consultants except medical, finish the contract and then go.

BB

[danrok]

GST is a cancer on the local economy.

Businesses have folded, and put part of the blame for that on GST.  When businesses fold, and people lose their jobs, that in itself causes a reduction in tax revenues.  The very thing they're attempting to fix the problem with, is also a cause of the problem.

[Ashley]

I believe that they would look at what VAT the UK pay and then look at what we pay and then come to the conclusion that 6 percent is still a reasonable amount to charge.  They'll double the revenue and hide under the duvet until the smoke clears.

[Voltaire]

HOW TO SAVE 3% GST COST

1) Cancel J Category Status and don't renew those not Teachers, Nurses or Doctors when their 5 years is up. (or has that law now changed on 5 years)

2) Get rid of consultants from outside the Island.

3) Get rid of 8 states members.

4) reduce the civil service by 20%

actually, that would probably save you close to £100m instead of just the GST Cost, but when we look at the problems that we are about to face and you become a civil servant as boaty boy has discussed above, you would probably come up with the following

1) Increase GST

2) Employ Constultants to produce a report to state that GST is the ONLY option available

3) employ some J cat "managers" to start a new department to implement the new increase

4) increase the civil service by employing more people to review how the extra GST is going to effect their lives (could you call this the statistics unit?) and then provide the information that is needed to agree with 2 above.

See, Boaty boy had it in one. We are just not thinking on the correct wavelength...

[moot]

HOW TO SAVE 3% GST COST
1) Cancel J Category Status and don't renew those not Teachers, Nurses or Doctors when their 5 years is up. (or has that law now changed on 5 years)
2) Get rid of consultants from outside the Island.
3) Get rid of 8 states members.
4) reduce the civil service by 20%

I like it ! Perhaps add : Get back to basics and common sense ( wishful thinking ... )

[Voltaire]

You know, the more I think about this the more I am concerned that the Chief Minister is not giving the picture in full.

When you look at what is happening in the rest of the world, the UK for example. Gordon Brown, bless his little pixie socks, has REDUCED VAT in an attempt to encourage public spending which is the only way to get itself out of recession, he has bailed out the banks, though I am not so sure that was the correct move, and he is reducing the cost to the general public in an attempt to get the economy moving again and instill some confidence in inter bank borrowing and money flow.

Our chief minister on the other hand, with the help obviously of the Finance Minister Senator Ozouf has so far promised to put on hold the 20 means 20 only to go back on it, advised that GST will have to be increased, and not allowed for tax benefits to increase with the cost of living, therefore costing the general public more money this year than ever before, reducing public spending and public confidence. You would start to wonder WHY?

Either he is a total Banker or Jersey is really fu*ked financially. My money is on the fact that Jersey really is up the creek without a paddle and because they dont have the round ones to tackle the actual problem of where our money is being wasted, they are looking at ways to get more money in.

If they go ahead with this, we will know that they have royally screwed up the finances with the decisions that they have made. We will be in for SUCH a hard time and you will be able to say you read it here, well before those statisticians have been able to do so.

[boatyboy]

One of the people I spoke to this week is *********  (rather remain a backbencher). This calm, incredibley clever man at the centre of a financial services company, and over the years seems to be open and honest,  just happens to mention the main British banks are insolvent ( broke) except for HSBC a conservative bank ( there must be others surely) So our triple star gold plated mini branches are broke too.

How often have we ever heard a Politician talking about cutting back on the public sector, GST may have to go up both printed in the ( JEP )  never !and Terry Le Main stopping J cats. For Jersey told so little normally, this is a firework display of heavy comment.

Lets be clear talking yourself into negativity, will eventually make it happen.What we need now is commonsence and a reality check on saving Jerseys economy. Yes really.

Jersey is the most beautifull island. Good people mostly too. Its time for the establishment party to leave the tower, be honest and practical, why ? because the river of money that has poured into the States coffers is going to become a stream, because building houses on sand on the side of a hill is a bad idea, and one day, its going to rain very very hard, it just has, caused by a corrupt, megalomaniac ,snobbish, self interested group of gamblers called banking executives, If I screw up what the hell I still make a fortune, the club mantra. The regulators were just not clever enough and locked in a lemming like banking culture.

So we are where we are,the outgoings are so large to run this small island ( the spend spend spend mentality )that our States members really have to have a mind shift about the economy. To use wisely the reserves, what a wonderfull position to be in to actually have some money . The real danger is not understanding the new game, the rules have all changed, in fact its not even the same game, and the financial meldown is real and not going away.

States members, don't be afraid, be honest and brave, protect the purse, go back to basics, cut out deadwood, its not easy, and if you get it right ? at least Jersey will still have an economy, if you get it wrong ? can we afford to employ you ? Shall we go to Lloyds HBOS for a loan, if they give us one ? how do you suggest we repay it ?

Boatyboy.



 

[rogueelement]

BB It is almost certainly a fact that the write offs we have seen from RBS , HBOS and other banks have been extremely well documented and the negative tone used by almost everyone is that more write offs are expected.
However Barclays have declared an almost £6 billion profit for 2008.LLoyds after write offs and marking down to market are still going to show a billion profit.
We know that historically banks as large as these can make as much as 10 -11 billion in profits a year , the problem is that they did not in the good times, build up sufficient reserves to see them through an experience like the one we are now seeing.
Now it will either get better , slowly , or it is the end of just about everything we know. I am optimistic that things will recover ...slowly , simply because the alternative is not just horrendous , it is cataclysmic!
By cataclysmic I mean(let us just say in the instance of Jersey) the following:- Unemployment to reach 30,000, Wholesale rioting, public disorder, Electricity supplies shut down due to lack of our ability to pay,the Social Security fund not just stretched to breaking point but broken so that health services and benefits will be no more. Armed forces required to maintain order and to prevent looting of whatever shops/businesses are left.The handing over of our autonomy to a British government in order that we can be supplied with food by them.No pensions, no health service, a massive return to the land for essential foods.I know that many Jersey people have been praying for such a scenario for a long time , Jersey back to 20,000 population living the Agricultural "good life" , but that is not what is going to happen.We are talking about civil strife here on a massive scale and there is little anyone in the States Chamber can do about it except pray that America and the UK pull out of this downward spiral and that normal service can be resumed in 2011.
Be careful what you wish for people , sometimes wishes can come true.
I wish the politicians well for the next couple of years , because,if the pessimistic view persists,they are going to be bloody.
With regard to the Civil Service ,events will determine their fate.
I seriously hope that my optimistic view is the correct one, even so everyone wants a cull of the civil service now, not when it becomes a necessity.

[rogueelement]

PS
The above pessimistic scenario is not entirely my own view , but that of an extremely well respected French Economic consultancy that charges for the entitlement to read their reports! Cheese eating surrender monkeys maybe , but a view nevertheless that needs to be taken into consideration.

[!CaveMan]

GST is causing my business to fail because of the knock on effects of my suppliers
having delayed goods delivery, because customs now have to check everything causing backlogs
one of my major suppliers has just stopped without even informing us! bringing goods in now, because of all the hassel involved and extra paperwork
leaving us and my customers up in the air, so any work I do for the states of Jersey Iv'e had to double the cost to pay for the extra aggro they are causing my firm to trade,
"GET RID OF THE STUPID TAX" I Say

[rogueelement]

You are quite right Cave man it is a stupid tax . The easiest mechanism for collecting more tax is on petrol/diesel. No additional paperwork , fully "user pays" and capable of being ramped up and down to suit requirements.
GST has been a staggeringly expensive way to collect a few pennies. It has cost the Islands business people huge sums to install and run.
Bin it now and stop dickering about with non broken systems!(i.e. if it aint broke, don,t fix it)

[boatyboy]

I hope I am not pessimistic; I would hope to be read as realistic. If the economic leadership, are still thinking the gravy train will continue? Which to be fair is unlikely with the paid advisors and many States Departments as information gatherers, then they will be in denial and we will have a big problem.

If they try and spend their way out, this will help while we have money in reserve, but my point is there are times to save and times to spend. I hear plenty of the word spend! but little of the word save. The challenges like other economies are going to be great, but not insurmountable. What makes it tricky for the island is most of the tax take is generated by the Finance industry. We are all aware this is exactly the industry in major trouble. Taxing is not the way out either, it will just cause less spending and more people leaving resulting in higher taxes.

Boatyboy.

[danrok]

GST is causing my business to fail because of the knock on effects of my suppliers
having delayed goods delivery, because customs now have to check everything causing backlogs
one of my major suppliers has just stopped without even informing us! bringing goods in now, because of all the hassel involved and extra paperwork
leaving us and my customers up in the air, so any work I do for the states of Jersey Iv'e had to double the cost to pay for the extra aggro they are causing my firm to trade,
"GET RID OF THE STUPID TAX" I Say

Sorry to hear that, and I'm sure you're not alone in being aggravated by GST.

The States needs more tax revenue, fair enough, but why the hell they had to raise more money via a system which causes operational problems for businesses, I don't know.  They would not listen to the people, when we quite rightly told them it was wrong to introduce GST.  Why don't they listen to the people they're supposed to represent?

Now the fat head behind GST is our Chief Minister!

[Ashley]

Perhaps it's time for another demostration?

Who do we know who cares enough, has the wherewithal, time, dedication and drive to arrange and carry out a mass protest?

Ideally we'd be looking for something between the woolworths gathering and the pool tax roits of 1990.

I'm serious.  A demo should be arranged and if that doesn't work then another should be, and another, and another untill these people appreciate that you cannot solve a financial crisis by taxing people even more.  If we have to spend less then so do they!