Author Topic: White hot election boards  (Read 905 times)

Offline Nick Palmer

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White hot election boards
« on: November 21, 2008, 07:29:31 PM »
Go on somebody - write something...

Offline The Rev Peter Sarkey

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2008, 02:01:46 AM »
What like this: -
"The canard 'oh, those scary scientists, they predicted global cooling 30 years ago, now its global warming. They're just loony environmentalists who want to scare us and do bad things to us.' Well, today there is a widespread consensus (which will be, again, demonstrated with the coming IPCC report) as above, about Global Warming. In the 1970s, there was a popular science book on Global Cooling (The Cooling) that fostered some reaction in the popular press. There were magazine articles (includingNewsweek ), and some scientific speculation due to developing knowledge of glacial cycles combined with noted cooling trend from air pollution particles blocking sunlight. On the other hand, there was no IPCC, not 1000s of peer-reviewed studies, no ... Now, to understand just how strong the agreement was in the scientific community on Global Cooling, we have to go no further than the Professor Reid Bryson's (not the book's author) introduction to The Cooling:
The Cooling will be controversial, because among scientists, most of the matters it deals with are hotly debated. There is no agreement on whether the earth is cooling. There is not unanimous agreement on whether is has cooled, or one hemisphere has cooled and the other warmed. One would think that there might be consensus about what data there is - but there is not. There is no agreement on the causes of climatic change, or even why it should not change amongst those who so maintain. There is certainly no agreement about what the climate will do in the next century, though there is a majority opinion that it will change, more or less, one way or the other. Of that majority, a majority believe that the longer trend will be downward. Nevertheless, it is an important question, as this book points out, and it is time for some of the questions to be settled. Lowell Ponte has summarized the data and theories very well, and has reasonably concluded that a rapid change in Earths climate is possible, perhaps even likely, within the next few decades, and that this would have serious consequences for mankind.
The introduction to Ponte's book raises many questions and doubts about Ponte's work but says that this is interesting work, an interesting theory, and that this merits examination. Hmmm ... a scientist who is saying "interesting theory presented here, let's figure out if he's right and what it means". Isn't that how science is supposed to work with hypothesis / theory and testing? Well, Global Warming/Global Climate Change is far advanced beyond this test a theory/concept stage. And, pointing to one book and Newsweek article to discredit the Global Warming work is shallow efforts to create doubt rather than serious examination of issues that should be taken seriously."
Watcha think Nick?
"That's not in the effing good book!"

Offline Fritz

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2008, 09:07:18 AM »
Its messing about with the clocks that gives the illusion of climate change.

Online boatyboy

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2008, 11:45:11 AM »
Nick

You have written and caused some debate on green issues, which are close to your heart.

Lets talk about the Harcourt the Espanade Qtr, the recession ( can Jersey swim ) and funding for quangos.

You mentioned in earlier posts that economics can be green, can we hear about the economic thoughts you have relating to the above, subjects ?

Thanks

Boatyboy.

Offline The Rev Peter Sarkey

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2008, 12:04:22 PM »
Shitt BB I think of something intelligent and you change the subject?
"That's not in the effing good book!"

Online boatyboy

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2008, 01:15:16 PM »
In my paint by numbers, colouring book there are other colours than green.

BB

Offline The Rev Peter Sarkey

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2008, 02:10:59 AM »
Yah but there ARE loads of different shades of green aren't there? ::)
"That's not in the effing good book!"

Offline Nick Palmer

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2008, 05:50:10 PM »
And, pointing to one book and Newsweek article to discredit the Global Warming work is shallow efforts to create doubt rather than serious examination of issues that should be taken seriously."
Watcha think Nick?

Even at the time (mid 70's/early 80's), the number of scientific papers were skewed towards a "consensus" that warming was more likely to be a problem - 44 scientific papers predicted warming, 20 were neutral and just 7 predicted cooling. There were (and still are) various aspects of climate changing influences which fight against each other.

Firstly, the very long term trend is that we are headed towards another ice age over the next few thousand years. The concern of that book, the Newsweek article and the seven "cooling" papers was that the acid gas and particulate (sooty) emissions of fossil fuel burning would cool the planet so much that it would artificially accelerate the coming ice age and lead to big trouble. The other danger, at the time, that a nuclear war would throw up so much dust that we would get a "nuclear winter" for years (because the Sun would be blocked out) got a bit mixed up with this idea.

There never was a scientific consensus in the 70's that the world was going to cool like the Newsweek article said - this is a myth put about and continually brought up by the denier lobby - although if you look at the balance of MEDIA reports at the time you would have got a false impression of the reality which is exactly the same as today - in a misguided attempt to present a "balanced" view, the media make the denier lobby, small though it is, look much bigger than it actually is and give it WAY too much credibility. It is a fact that the only serious scientists with any credibility in that lobby actually agree that the planet is warming, that we are responsible for it and that further warming will take place (this is easy to verify if you just do a tiny bit of research - Richard Lindzen is probably the most credible of the sceptics so just check out what he is currently saying). The only bit where they diverge from the mainstream "consensus" position is that they say that the warming will not be as much as predicted and that it won't be as harmful as predicted. In short, they are "feeling lucky, punk"...

P.S. I'll get back to boatyboy's quangos and Harcourt later. I'll only say that to go ahead with a giant new financial district now would be yet another quantum leap in the insanity, folie de grandeur and sheer inappreciation of reality that characterises our current Ministers/States. 

Offline Nick Palmer

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2008, 06:03:16 PM »
Here is a clickable list debunking the main denier myths and propaganda. It's based on a feature in "New Scientist" and so is fairly credible, certainly streets ahead of the denier/delayer poison

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462-climate-change-a-guide-for-the-perplexed.html

Offline Sarah Ferguson

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2008, 09:11:58 AM »
For a bit of amusement try:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLxicwiBQ7Q&eurl=http://www.climate-skeptic.com/

If you can't pull up the video then try www.climate-skeptic.com. It's about half way down the page.

Although for those with paranoia try http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4370 and the fascinating comments as NOAA keep switching the data files.  Some of the comments are a bit techy- the finer points of statistics - but the strory can be followed without understanding these.  Find how they "lost" Wellington, New Zealand!!

Offline Nick Palmer

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2008, 11:55:37 AM »
For a bit of worrying no holds barred realism try  http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/26/163120/516

That Youtube video was a hoot until I realised (right at the end) that it was a serious attempt to hoodwink people and not just a satirical way of showing how media reports can be presented in a twisted way - you need to constantly pause and read the juxtaposed stories to realise the true evil or gross stupidity (it can only be one or the other) of these people. They use similar techniques of deceptive rhetoric and sophistry as Erich "Chariots of the Gods" Von Daniken used and also Richard "face on Mars" Hoagland


Steve Mcintyre http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Stephen_McIntyre is a very fine example of someone seeing the mote in another's eye without seeing the beam in his own. He uses the "blind them with science" method by coming out with a confusing blizzard of words but a lot of what he does is not science, it is rhetoric and bullshit. He is not a scientist, let alone a climate scientist, let alone a published climate scientist, let alone a a climate scientist doing research. His "Climate Audit" website has been described as dishonest. He is a statistician and part-time consultant in Toronto to minerals industries. However he has, on occasion, spotted various inconsistencies in some data and he spotted a doozy recently where a previous month's figures were submitted again for October's figures thus making it appear as if we had had had the warmest anomalous October on record (this incident was featured by rogueelement and Fritz on the global warming thread but was so dumb and "clutching at straws" that I couldn't be bothered to answer it - maybe I should have, but I'm a bit busy at the moment).

Bear in mind that there was no media storm about this potentially dramatic development because the scientists realised that it was an error pretty sharpish - the denialist websites and PR machine however have been trumpeting this error as if it was somehow really significant
« Last Edit: November 24, 2008, 05:05:54 PM by Nick Palmer »

Offline tonytheprof

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2008, 09:37:42 AM »
Where is that global warming when one wants it? It was freezing yesterday and last night.


Offline Mark Forskitt

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Re: White hot election boards
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2008, 10:28:48 AM »
Where is that global warming when one wants it? It was freezing yesterday and last night.


You just wait until the North Atlantic drift switches off.